The Brief: Bishnu Sapkota on The 2022 General Elections Results, the Rise of the “Independents,” and the Future of Nepali Politics

[00:00:10] - [Saurav Lama]
Namaste and welcome to Pods by PEI, a policy discussion series brought to you by Policy Entrepreneurs Inc. My name is Saurav Lama. In today's episode, have Bishnu Sapkota in the PEI studio to discuss the early results of the twenty twenty two general elections, the possible implications for the political party, the surprising rise of the independence, and the future of Nepali politics and policy making. Bishnu is a noted columnist and commentator of Nepali politics. Up until 02/2015, he was in charge of the Nepal Transition to Peace, a national Track 1.5 Peace Process program As the lead, he helped facilitate the dialogue between the political parties during the crucial phases of the Mao's insurgency the people's movement through the promulgation of the new constitution Mister Sapkota is an Asian fellow to Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame.

[00:01:04] - [Saurav Lama]
Vishnu and I begin our discussion on the significance of the two thousand twenty two elections and the low voter turnout, the early results and the implication for the political parties. We also discuss the better than expected performance of the Rashtriya Swotantra Party and also the pre election movements such as the NoNotAgain. We end on the topic of the likelihood of a Hung Parliament and its implications for the future of policy making in Nepal We hope you enjoy the conversation Vishnu, welcome to PODS by PEI. It's a pleasure to have you on the show. Thank you very much for providing your invaluable time with us.

[00:01:42] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
Thank you. Pleasure to be here.

Shall we get on with the show?

Sure.

[00:01:44] - [Saurav Lama]
So the twenty twenty two general elections just concluded and we're awaiting the poll results. But before we get into discussing the election day and the trends of the initial results themselves, could you give us your take on the significance of this particular election that we just took part in? Was this the election that will bring the political stability needed in the country?

[00:02:08] - [Saurav Lama]
Was there anything special about it?

[00:02:10] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
So obviously in a democracy, every election is important. But for Nepal, I would say this is even more important election than in an usual time. Because this is only the second election after we got the new constitution in 2015. And we're still in that process or phase of implementation of new constitution. There are still certain provisions which there are obviously different political views.

[00:02:35] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
So in that sense, this election is more important because it would reflect how people have perceived the roles of those who are there to implement the newest constitution. I think so there are a number of other factors, but I think this election was really important. Indeed. Some of

[00:02:56] - [Saurav Lama]
the trends of the last election do reflect that. So speaking of the election day itself, you did mention the people's perception. What are your thoughts on the perception of the low voter turnout that is being reported? A figure the Election Commission of Nepal reports to be 61%. Is there anything we can gather from this?

[00:03:15] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
What I would like to say before commenting on that is, well, this is only the second election after the new constitution. The actors, our national political actors, those who have been there, they have been there for too long, for simply too long. So there was this general frustration among the general public, you know, about the incompetent, you know, corruption and you know, different scandals and all those things. So what people were looking for is massive change. At the same time, what we should understand is that an election is not something which can always bring up massive political change.

[00:03:55] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
So the context for the election therefore was important because of people's expectation versus what the political class was or has been able to deliver in the last five years. So the voter turnout, to come back to this question, if we compare it with the previous elections of Nepal, it is obviously low. I think that itself is a message, because there is a general apathy, you know, towards this political class. It's not a good thing that, know, people should participate in election and should board them out. We don't have a, you know, provision where people can vote, you know, reject the item vote.

[00:04:35] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
I think people choose not to go and cast their vote. That to me is itself one message. And when we look at it, in the light of, you know, what we have seen the early trends of the election results, I there is a consistency between the low turnout and people's desperateness, you know, to spur new parties and new faces.

[00:05:00] - [Saurav Lama]
So speaking of the political parties, in the last election, we also saw some electoral alliances made up of strange bedfellows. This was something we also touched upon in one of our previous episodes that was based on PI's own election analysis of alliances among parties that do not traditionally share common ideologies. Check out our episode with PEI's Anurag Acharya and Avinash Karna for that. So as we record this show, we see the Nepali Congress in the lead with UML coming in second. So given these initial results, which analysts are projecting will perhaps hold shape to the end of the vote count, Where do you think Nepali Party politics will move towards in the coming days?

[00:05:41] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
The point you raised about the strength bedfellows, I think that is critical. That is important. I just would like to comment on that. There are a strength in Nepali politics, not just now, but in the last past few years.

[00:05:57] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
It's because there's very little these political parties are representing. So their sole goal seems to just stick to being in power in the government. So when it comes to forming a government, they would not care about what ideals they represent, what ideological orientations they they are supposed to represent and and all that. So it's not for any good reason. So that reflects about, you know, so many evils about Nepal's politics.

[00:06:31] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
And this election simply reflected that. So when the elections were just being prepared, everyone was desperate to have an alliance with everyone else, whoever was, you know, available. So once they form the alliances, whatever alliances, you know, the current government's ruling coalition alliance and the opposition, there is no principle, there is no vision that brings them together. That's why this this is very, very important when we analyze the election results, how these beds were set and how these fellows came together, you know, as as it stands, bed fellows.

[00:07:09] - [Saurav Lama]
So now let us begin with the political parties. First, let's start with the grand alliance, the Mahagathabandan. Where do you think the parties go from here?

[00:07:20] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
They will go nowhere from here, and I'm very clear about it. Because as we just talked earlier, these alliances were formed just to come back to power or just to stay in power or come back to power. So if you look at these alliances, on the one hand, I mean, have centrist, you have democrats, you have extreme leftist, and you have the most right wing. You have everyone together. And first they try to form alliances.

[00:07:46] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
And once they're able to form whatever possible electoral alliances, then they try to theorize it, give some kind of ideological quote or whatever. So I think anyone with a critical mind would not believe in what they're trying to sell. Therefore, from here, what I see is as soon as we have the new election results, the complete results, the new alliances or the Gathabandans will begin to shape up or form. Mean, one is, of course, the current one, the ruling government parties alliance may continue. That's just one possibility.

[00:08:26] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
But what I see is there will be every effort. Anyone can come together. Anyone can go away from anywhere. It's also because most of this part I mean, when I talk like this, I'm generalizing. I'm aware there are exceptions within political parties.

[00:08:43] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
And there are some parties who may be more loyal to what they are supposed to represent. But in the big picture, the alliances can be formed or broken on the basis of you know, the give and take and the bargain. And that bargain is more for power than for anything else.

[00:09:02] - [Saurav Lama]
So how about the future of the Maoist who seem to be doing poorly in the polls?

[00:09:07] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
The future of the Maoist has been something that we've been speculating, not now, but for the last many, many years. We just have to quickly look back at the 02/2008, the first constituent assembly elections. They became the largest party, not only largest party, the then Nepali Congress and UML combined were smaller than the Maoist party in the first constituent assembly. And five years later, you know, in in the in the next second constituent assembly election, the Maoist were a distant third. At that time, we talked about, okay, what is the future?

[00:09:42] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
Why is it happening? What is happening? And all those questions. And then in the next election, 2018, there was this alliance between the UML and the Maoist party. They again tried to give it like an ideological narrative that it's like the seventy years of Nepal's dream for a communist revolution, whatever finally being realized, which is all untrue.

[00:10:09] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
It was a national lie. It was a political lie. It was just to win the electorate, which they did. The lie is sold well in my opinion. So that means there was no opportunity for people to evaluate the Maoist because they they went together in election with with the UML, and and they did well.

[00:10:26] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
And in the local elections a few months ago, the Maoist did relatively well compared to what many were thinking, compared to what even I was assessing. And the Maoists were really enthused with the results of the local elections a few months ago. Now, as we have seen the early results and the trends, they're not doing well. So what I would like to say is we talked about this election being very important, more important than in an usual time for any democracy because it is only the second election after the new constitution. I'm just repeating That's why when we talk about Maoist, we should not lose sight of this perspective that the big political project of Nepal's, you know, state restructuring, changing the character of the state, making Nepal inclusive state, ensuring the ownership of the minorities, various ethnic groups, and women's rights.

[00:11:23] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
And all those aspirations of those traditionally marginalized populations, The Maoist peoples were, the people's movement of two thousand six, the constituent assembly, and obviously, the Madhesi movement and the other ethnic movement, women's movement, all of them came together and the constituent assembly was supposed to institutionalize all of them in the new constitution, which it has to a large extent. They still are, you know, discontent, as we know. So when we look at the Maoist and evaluate how they will do, many of these issues, whether you like the Maoist or not, were brought to the forefront, you know, and and other political parties were forced to address and to come together. I'm not saying the Maoist led everything. So but but for Nepal to become a republic and then to have a new constitution and all that, the background is I mean, we should not lose sight of this background.

[00:12:16] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
Therefore, the Maoist are not doing well now. They did not do pretty well even in the previous election, I mean, for that alliance with with the UML because they were not able to represent their own constituencies. As soon as they got into power in 02/2008, they were not able to perform. They deviated from what they had promised to the people. I'm not talking about the, you know, the typical Maoist ideological thing what they were it was good that they they accepted multiparty democracy in their general convention.

[00:12:48] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
They have accepted democracy, which is all good. They were bound to. They had to. They did that. But what I'm talking about is the representation of the marginalized.

[00:13:00] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
And and and their own character that changed. As soon as they got into power, the rapid speed at which they deteriorated. Surpassing the deterioration by speed of the congress and the UML. And and just being one of the others. I think that's why people had a lot of hope in the Maoist and those who supported Maoist, who hope from them, were disillusioned in a very short span of time.

[00:13:26] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
That is why Maoist at the moment seem to be just in the balance. On the one hand, you have a democratic force, Nepali Congress, whether you like it or not. There's a traditional constituency that Congress has always represented, right? On the other for the moderate left, I mean, all the so called left or whatever, there's the UML. And UML has a very strong organizational capacity structure throughout the country compared to the Maoist.

[00:13:50] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
And you have the other regional or ethnic groups. I mean, it's one or the other, they always have some. Even now, CK Raut's rise in the Eastern Madhesh and the Rastriya Unmukti Party led by Resham Chaudhary, who is in prison in the Far West. So you have those parties who seem to put their hope in those new parties. That means now what do Maoist represents?

[00:14:17] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
That's why I think the Maoist future at the moment is really uncertain.

[00:14:23] - [Saurav Lama]
So I like how you touched on the UML there. So what does the last election say about the future of the UML?

[00:14:29] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
The future of the UML is not bright and clear as long as KP Oli is the chairperson. If you look at the current election and the desperateness, you know, and and the alliance that K. P. Oli tried and enforced, it's like you you have Kamal Thapa and Rajendra Ligden in as UML alliance. What does it tell about them?

[00:14:51] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
And think about what K. P. Oli has been saying or did when he was prime minister. So I would like to have two comments here. I feel strongly about it.

[00:15:03] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
First of all, one point that I have observed is when we got the new constitution in 2015, the UML had turned into a national political establishment. Because in 02/2015, it was the UML KP Oli who led the promulgation. Although Nepali Congress was leading the government, was the largest party, KP Oli had a more more crucial role. That that was a big shift in terms of where UML was standing. But when K.P. Oli became prime minister with with with close to a two third majority, he recommended for the dissolution of the parliament not once, but twice. That was unconstitutional. Anyone who can read the constitution can see that. And there was a long background about putting that provision in the constitution.

[00:15:55] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
That means there is a question about legitimacy on on current UML leadership's ownership or adherence to the new constitution, number one. Number two, the right wing leanings, not on every occasion, but on multiple occasions that KP Oli reflected is, I have questions about what he really where he wants to lead UML to. And I just talked about the electoral alliances that he has during this election. And not only that, look at the situation of the internal democracy in UML. Their last general convention was a farce.

[00:16:34] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
It was not a convention in the sense that UML was conducting conventions in the previous year. Whoever has a critical voice against KP Oli has no space in the UML. So this party in that sense has become as good or as bad as the Maoist in terms of the lack of democracy internally. It's not good for any party. It's not good for UML.

[00:16:58] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
So I I wish all the best for the UML supporters and members. But as long as KP Oli is there, one is there is no one direction. It's just like, you know, autocratic and dictatorial way of his his leadership. It's not going to do well to the party. Two is in terms of what UML is representing.

[00:17:15] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
I am not very optimistic about that. So in this election, UML is likely to be number two party again. K. P. Oli will try to form a government in his own leadership.

[00:17:24] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
I mean, he succeeds or not is different thing, but he will try. But the real question is, okay, UML is okay, moderate, lift, and all that. But UML's major strength has been its nationwide memberships, its supporters, and the organization. But when you have a party structure which is dictatorial, which has lost all the internal democratic practice that it used to have, even before Nepali Congress started to practice, it's not going to do well to the party. From that point of view, I don't see a very bright future for UML in five years.

[00:18:02] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
But if this changes, if this all changes, again, UML will will continue to become a strong party, obviously. I'm just saying if if the current pattern continues, there's less hope. But if it changes, obviously UML will continue to be a major player.

[00:18:17] - [Saurav Lama]
Just to touch upon something very similar. So how do you see the vote went for the Madhesh based parties?

[00:18:24] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
This is very interesting. It was not long ago, we talked about the constituent assembly. Before that there was the Madhesh moment, the rise of the Madhesh parties as the original force and to the third force. Whatever the side aligned with, they had the power to form government. So in a sense, they were like a kingmaker on occasions.

[00:18:47] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
And then look at now where they have been. So I think the Modest population, feel that they're leaders, the leaders of the moment. They have failed them. And they have shown this election also. So it is not that all those issues have been addressed and there is no discontent with the Madhesh and what they expected the new constitution to be, how they wanted the federal arrangement under the new constitution to work.

[00:19:19] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
It's not satisfactory. We can see that. But in terms of representing that or or defending that, the Madhesh leadership, the the old ones, they have failed. They had failed, and the the election showed that the people also assess it like that. So the rise of CK Rao is an interesting phenomenon.

[00:19:38] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
I mean, he started separatist and extremist and then all that. And then it's good that he decided to join the mainstream politics, accepting the new constitutional framework for the country. That's good. But the way he defeated Upendra Yadab, the main leader of the Madhesh movement, it's really interesting. So people are impatient.

[00:19:59] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
They want somebody to represent them legitimately and not just to go to or come to Kathmandu from Madhes and then just look for being a minister and and, you know, power and resources and and something that the other parties have been doing forever. So I think it's a punishment and a very clear punishment. And in the Far West, maybe we'll about that later. Also, the, you know, phenomena, you know, Resham Chaudhary who is in prison and in the Tharu movement and the riots, all that thing. I think people have really spoken vocally at this election.

[00:20:32] - [Saurav Lama]
Okay. Touching on something that is interesting. One of the more interesting element in the election results was the performance of the Rashtriya Swatantra Party. Does the result signify anything? What are their opportunities and challenges moving forward?

[00:20:45] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
It does signify a lot of things, for sure. I'll talk about the opportunity or the challenge, how it may all shape up. But what it signifies is, you know, the the national frustration that has been there, you know, against the the current political class. The Rastriya Swatantra party was, you know, one option that many people have chosen. What is interesting there is they were formed just five months ago.

[00:21:14] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
What is their ideological inclination? Obviously, they have said a few things, but not everything. Like how do they look at the whole main political course of Nepal that has started since 02/2006? There are so many issues that are still there. So important issues.

[00:21:30] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
But in terms of implementation of federalism, the citizenship issues, there are so many issues. You cannot just simply become a parliamentarian and say, okay, I don't care about it. We're not political and what Nepal needs is just like public service delivery and then big political ideologies are useless. It's not going to work. I'm not advocating that the new parties should have, again, these political jargon field ideological abstract, whatever.

[00:22:01] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
I'm not talking about that. What I'm talking about is in terms of defining them politically. They are not there yet. So what I'm trying to say is, even when people don't know who they really are in in that sense, they are elected, you know, in a in an impressive way. Look at look at Kathmandu.

[00:22:19] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
Know, Kathmandu is an interesting phenomenon. You know, Kathmandu is so impatient. If you look at the election results of Kathmandu from 1991, the then interim prime minister was defeated. And and Ganesh Man Singh was the supreme leader. His wife and son had contested in two constituencies.

[00:22:36] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
Both of them were defeated in the in the first election after the restoration of democracy. And if you look at the trends in the other elections, and and let's come back to Balenza being elected as a mayor against the candidates of Nepali Congress and UML who have had strong political organizations in the valley for such a long time. And now the Rashtriya Swatantra Party candidates also in Lalitpur, for example, and and nationwide, like in in Chitwan. So what it reflects is just because a political party leader has been in prison for ten, fifteen years or has led a political movement or has has given country democracy, whatever, that people are not simply going to legitimize them time and again through election. So what Nepal needs, what people want is the capacity to to govern, to to deliver.

[00:23:24] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
Right? So their their history, you know, is not simply going to be a qualification for them to be, you know, elected all the time. So I think Rastya Sotundra Party. I think many of the candidates who have won, they're interesting. They have diverse backgrounds.

[00:23:40] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
Many of them bring the, know, expertise from diverse professional backgrounds. It's good. So I think it will create a pressure on the other old big political parties to develop the capacity. Mean, being a leader, being in a political moment for a long time is one thing. That's a good thing.

[00:23:55] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
Okay. Right? But when you come to power, become a parliamentarian or a minister, then you need all these skills. You need expertise. In in the past few years, what I've been commenting about the traditional political parties is, okay, you guys don't have the technical expertise.

[00:24:10] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
Okay. You become education minister. You don't know much about education. Now what to do? Okay.

[00:24:15] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
One is you could choose the best, you know, among the worst. So okay. Suppose everyone is the same. But you could at least be not corrupt. And if you are not corrupt you don't need any technical skill or expertise not to be corrupt.

[00:24:28] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
You just need this moral courage. And when when the minister is not corrupt, then a lot of good things could happen. So anyway, so my point is, I think the the Rastriya Swatantra Party members, they bring that expertise and and the and enthusiasm. But on top of all, if if the other parties continue to be how they are, they don't have a long future. That's good.

[00:24:54] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
And the other thing is the people's, you know, impatient. You know, they're not just going to wait for a long time. You know, the new party, if they don't fare well, again, maybe in five years, there'll be another new party. So you're asking about, okay, what are the opportunities and challenges? So opportunity, they have opportunities alone everywhere.

[00:25:13] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
Right? There's so much hope and, you know, there's so much enthusiasm and they are the headlines. They are the many stories of this election. The Rashtriya Swatantra party. But I just would like to say, because we should not lose sight of this again, is when we talk about the rise of Rashtriya Swatandra party, there is also a rise of C.K. Raut in Eastern Madish and the rise of Rastriya Unmukti Party in the Western Nepal.

[00:25:36] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
Right? Sometime we lose sight. Why is it important is in my assessment, it's very preliminary assessment. Rastriya Swatantra Party, some of its leaders, its main leader and a few others, they seem to have a little conservative tilt towards looking at Nepal's political course and the direction. There are many who have doubted whether they're like like too conservative, you know, a little regressive in that sense, you know, not owning federalism because they didn't have they didn't fill any candidates in in the provincial elections.

[00:26:06] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
Is that their political statement? It's just because they don't want it. Have many people who have voted for them? Is it because of of that that reason? So anyway, so there are questions about their their ownership of the new constitution and the course.

[00:26:21] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
In that sense, when we talk about the rise of the new parties, we should not lose sight of the rise of the parties who are championing the voices of of the ethnic groups and and, you know, regional groups. It it brings a balance. I I think very good. So when we talk about the rise of the new and and how the old have lost, I mean, lost whatever they have lost. We have to look at all these three parties together.

[00:26:47] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
Their strength may be different, size will be different, but I think we should look at all of them together. And finally, you know, I say they have opportunities because, you know, they have the fresh trust and mandate from the people and that all parties are so delegitimized. And, you know, if they do a small good things, you know, people will just appreciate. But again, people are not going to be very patient. In three to six months time, if the new parties are not performing well, they will just form alliances with whoever or contribute.

[00:27:16] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
I think people will begin to assist them again and board them out in five years. I wish them all the best. Right? But opportunities, ample. But challenge, first, not about CK Raut and Rastriya Unmukti Mukti party.

[00:27:32] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
I think politically, are more clear in terms of where they stand now. Rashtriya Swatantra Party, because of the diverseness it has with its people, I think they have to first have that political identity in terms of simple like, okay. Look. This is where Nepal is. This is how we want to go ahead.

[00:27:48] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
This is how we'll play our role in the parliament. Just one thing to highlight here is there's this citizenship bill, which was parliament passed, but the president didn't approve it unconstitutionally, I would like to comment. But the reality is it has not been approved. Now for the new parliament, that will be something. First, initially, they have to the parliament will have to work on that because there are many thousands of citizens who are just without a citizenship, although they are entitled to.

[00:28:20] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
So when I say they need to have a political identity, they need to define themselves as, okay, how are they going to look at the citizenship bill, for example? And that is something that is interconnected with the new constitution, with with the federalism, with with everything else. So I think they cannot simply get away by saying that, no, no, we don't care about these big political ideologies where this new phase of Nepal and it's just public service delivery. Public service delivery, very important. Governance, very important.

[00:28:50] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
Anti corruption, very important. But for them to stand on all these issues, they need to have that basic political identity and consistency or homogeneity among themselves. Right? I think that is their main challenge. And, you know, in terms of being formed as a party and structure and all that thing, I think that was something that can take place.

[00:29:08] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
But I think that's the first thing they have to start with.

[00:29:11] - [Saurav Lama]
I think I also liked for how you said that the rise of the Russia Sotomayor Party is also the sign of the frustration of the existing political parties. So something that people also used to vent their frustration was the hashtag, no, not again. In your opinion, was this effective?

[00:29:28] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
It was effective. By the way, I write a political column in Kantipur once in a while. Before the elections were announced for November, expecting that the elections would take place in November, I had argued that, you know, the the top leaderships should be defeated. And the the I I had argued that in in the light of how undemocratic the political parties are, how there is so much I mean, so little internal democracy, How there is no space for new leadership to arise and new ideas to come up in the political parties. So because the parties, the current leaderships, they've captured those party structures.

[00:30:07] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
You know, they control the membership, how to distribute membership at the local level and how to choose local representatives, who then choose regional representatives, and who then change the national representatives, and who then change the party president or chairman. Right? So it's so closed. And given that, it's not easy to break that and and let new people, new faces rise in the party. People can punish these old leaders in the in the respective electoral constituencies by defeating them directly.

[00:30:39] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
And I think, no, not again. So in in his spirit, it is is is similar. So which I think was powerful. I mean, there there are many who said, oh, who is behind it and all that. I would not care much, whoever.

[00:30:50] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
The the message was, no, not again. We we need new people. We need new faces. We need new skills because, you know, we have already seen them for so many years. And then if if if it's again going to be the same old faces who will be our prime minister and minister, there's not much to hope.

[00:31:10] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
So I think that that movement was effective in his spirit. And and what I like about it is the the old political class has been rightly, politically harassed. Harassment is not a good word for anyone. So I, you know, I just would like to qualify this. But because the way they have been harassing Nepali people for such a long time, they deserve this political harassment.

[00:31:33] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
And and humiliation. Let's I think humiliation is a better word. So they've been humiliated, And the mandate, I think, elections have already taken place, and we'll we'll get the full results in a few days. But I think the mandate of this election is that there should be new people. There should be a transfer of leadership within the political parties.

[00:31:52] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
In terms of who comes to lead the government, we already talked about how the alliances will be formed form a government because not one party will have a majority as we see. But when that happens, again, I think this will be new leaderships from these even old parties. I think that is the message of no, not again. And I think that's again, it it it's very consistent with with the rise of the Rashtriya Swatantra Party and and the other new independent candidates.

[00:32:19] - [Saurav Lama]
So are you interpreting the results of the proportional representation where UML and the Nepali Congress have a significant lead and are in competition for first place, followed by the Rashtriya Swatantra Party and the Maoist who are competing for a distant third?

[00:32:35] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
I think so far, the UML and Congress have not done as good as they would have if they were not Rashtriya Swatantra Party. You know, Rashtriya Swatantra Party, again, you know, they are fielded candidates in so many places despite them being formed just like a few months before the election, right, which is really impressive. Again, like I say, I just would like to repeat that. People didn't care who these people are, like the new people. But I just don't like the old ones, so maybe the new ones will be a better one.

[00:33:04] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
So in that light, the PR votes that UML has got and the Congress, they still Yeah, you said it rightly. They'll still be number one and two between UML and Congress. But the Swatantra Party, last year Swatantra Party is coming probably number three between them and the Maoist seem to be a competition. Let's see nationally. That tells a lot because PR votes, how many seats they will get for the parliament based on the PR votes is one thing.

[00:33:35] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
But it's a popular vote. And it's if not in favor of somebody, against, you know, somebody. So that is a political message. Because for me, election, of course, I mean, everything at the end comes to mathematics, the numbers, like whether you have a majority in the parliament to form a government and all that thing. Obviously, numbers are important because there's nothing better.

[00:33:56] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
But also election is important for the mandate, for the deep underlying message. And the message is, again, change of leadership, not the old faces. And as you raised earlier, the no not again means no not again the same faces in the government. What I'm simply hoping, it may still be a little unrealistic hope, but what I'm still hoping is that the election will give us a new face as a prime minister. Like I said, I'm aware.

[00:34:25] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
Not very realistic having known these people for such a long time. But I think the underlying message of PR votes also is that.

[00:34:33] - [Saurav Lama]
So also the last elections weren't only for the federal government, but we also had the elections for the provincial levels. So how are you interpreting the results at the provincial level?

[00:34:44] - [Saurav Lama]
The national media and, you know, in general, there was less attention to the provincial elections, which is a sad thing in my opinion. It's because, you know, I have a comment here about federalism before coming to this because it's it's important. It's it's interconnected. It's Nepali Congress, but more UML, they're forced to accept federalism because of the movements, especially in the in the Madhesh. They were not pro federal, I mean, which is fine.

[00:35:17] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
I mean, it's okay. I mean, people can be pro federal or anti federal or neutral. That's not a problem. What I'm saying is they're forced to accept it. That's because they were forced to accept and and because they never liked it heartily, there was this apathy.

[00:35:33] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
You know, if the federalism does not work well, that's okay. That's how they started. And and in the in the last five years, which was the first election after the new constitution, that the federal government, whoever was in party, you know, there may be a difference in degree, but they did not try to empower. They rather try to disempower the provincial governments. And when there is not much power, you know, given to them, transport and resources and all that, empowerment is everything, you know.

[00:36:01] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
So the it didn't become much attractive, you know. So everyone said, oh, national and central government is everything like in, you know, in a in a non federal structure. That's why there was less attention and many senior political leaders, they didn't want to fill their candidacy. And Rashid Sotundar Party, they didn't fill any candidate again in the provincial election. I mean, again, that may be a big political statement.

[00:36:23] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
Let's see on their part. So what is likely now is that in the provinces also, there will not be one single party which will command a majority to form a government. There will be alliances. But obviously those alliances will be different. Say in one province, there may be one party leading the government with a few others in another.

[00:36:45] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
So I think it's going to be pretty pretty mixed in the provincial elections.

[00:36:50] - [Saurav Lama]
The initial results indicate that Hung Parliament is likely. How do you think this will impact the future of Nepali politics? And more importantly, what does it mean for the issue of policy making and governance in Nepal?

[00:37:03] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
It is a very important topic to discuss about, actually. It is it is most likely. Not only in this election, previous and upcoming, as long as we have this mixed system of elections, the proper senate representative and the first past post, it's always likely that we'll have a hung parliament, which means it it gives power, you know, the the undeserved power to the same old political class because they can form alliances. So the fact that, or the likely fact that we will have a Hong Parliament again is not good for the country. That means in the next five years, it's less likely that we'll have one government, one government which will complete its tenure.

[00:37:46] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
That's one. Two is in terms of, again, the farming alliance, the coalition for the new government. Everyone will come together. And how they will come is is all political bargain. It's just not a bargain between the parties.

[00:37:59] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
It's a bargain internally. Within the party, there are different factions and all that thing. And so when you become a minister on the power, you know, basis of a faction, and then you are loyal to that faction, and and your whole attention would be to collect resources in an undue way. And, you know, and and the repeat basically the same thing, number one. Number two is when you have a coalition in a hung parliament, a coalition to lead the government, you cannot choose people, the most competent people, even within the political parties to to make ministers and to lead different, you know, portfolios.

[00:38:34] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
It's always a power balance among the parties. So, okay, say, Nepali Congress will lead the government with with the Maoist and say with one more other party. And then the the congress leadership cannot choose the ministers from the Maoist. And whoever Pushpa Komwal Dahl nominates will become the minister. And whom he will nominate in terms of new party balance and all that thing.

[00:38:54] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
It's not based on competence and other factor. So anyway, so it's it's it's a sad thing, but it's it's it's a reality. It's going to be a reality. Again, what is important is, of course, election is something that elects people to govern for five years. But democracy is a process, and political parties are important, of course, vehicle.

[00:39:14] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
But the media and the civil society and the public, any of the constant watch over their performance and how people are aware in terms of watching, We don't have a system to to recall, you know, the candidates if they don't perform well. But I think that that watch from the public and the media and the civil society is is going to be key just to hope, you know, let's hope. I mean, it's just that we're still to get the full election results. So I don't want to talk about pessimistic thing. I'm just being realistic that we know it's going to be a hung parliament.

[00:39:48] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
We know it's going to be a group of parties who will come together to form a government. And whoever comes together, the smaller ones, although there's the rise of the new parties, they will not have the power to be the leader in the government. But they will have the power to create a good pressure for others to perform better. So let's let's hope that things will be better, but the hung parliament is going to be a reality.

[00:40:12] - [Saurav Lama]
Before I let you go, could you give your thoughts on Nepal's electoral practice? I mean, we seem to be eternally hopeful in this particular act of democracy, which is meant to provide a chance for citizens to be heard and for democracy to correct its course. But we know that the process has many limitations from financial cost and irregularities to issues of inclusion. So in other words, is all of this exercise worth it? Or are there things we need to do?

[00:40:40] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
You know, obviously this is worth it. But I'm not saying it it is it is enough. There's a lot to be done to make it more worth, to make it, you know, as worth as as the Nepali people deserve. So but but it's a very important question. Why this question is important is before election, when the elections are announced, there is infighting within the party in terms of who gets the candidates.

[00:41:03] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
You know, that that electoral ticket to become a candidate. And there is the politics. It's a it's a bad practice. So if you are loyal to the party president or, like, what they look at is, okay, if the if this guy is going to be elected, will he or she vote for me or not to become the leader of the parliament, leader of the political party? And then if I'm elected as the parliamentary party leader in the party, then I can become the prime minister.

[00:41:27] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
So you demand that loyalty. You don't look at the competence. You don't look at the history. You don't look at, you know, all the potential of that candidate. What you look at is the loyalty, the personal loyalty.

[00:41:39] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
That has to change. How can that change? When there is internal democracy, when when there is like open competitive democracy within the parties, then those who are capable will come to lead. And then there has to be a primary, internal primary elections. And then when when you're elected through a primary, then you can become a candidate rather than your party boss in Kathmandu giving these tickets for you to become a candidate in in in Kailali or Ilam.

[00:42:08] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
So if there's a primary and that you you need to be elected locally, then you become the party candidate. That's just one one step. And then, you know, in terms of electoral alliances also, I think there's a lot to change. And this will allow people to to choose. Look at this current election.

[00:42:29] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
You have the congress and the Maoist going to election as one alliance. And and they belong to they're so apart from each other ideologically from their orientation and everything. It doesn't offer people much choice. And then you have the UML, you know, forming alliance with the RPP, for example. And you have the Mahdish based parties and look at the tragedy for the Mahdish population.

[00:42:52] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
Then you have one of your parties aligning with the UML and the other with the Congress. So it didn't offer that choice. So there's so many bad practice. I'm just saying some that I just think about now. But there are many things to improve and a lot of them starts, you know, with with the reform of the political parties, the internal democracy.

[00:43:14] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
And this will this will contribute to a better, you know, environment for elections and and for people to elect even better candidates.

[00:43:24] - [Saurav Lama]
And lastly, are there any words or messages that you would like to convey to our listeners?

[00:43:28] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
Yes. I would like to congratulate the Nepali people for their for their moral courage to go beyond the traditional boat patterns. They have shown that the old political class can be challenged. I think they have demonstrated very clearly that the Nepali people want change. So the message for change, I think that has come out very clearly, which is something that gives me hope.

[00:44:04] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
And also that, you know, if the new parties are also do not perform well, you know, the Nepali people are not going to wait. So the rise of the new is going to create a lot of pressure for the old ones to reform. I wouldn't care whether we have a new one or old one. What we want is a is a good one. Right?

[00:44:21] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
So I think this election gives that hope and I'm I'm generally optimistic about that.

[00:44:27] - [Saurav Lama]
Thank you, Bishnu, once again for being with us on today's show. I wish you all the very best for your future endeavors.

[00:44:32] - [Bishnu Sapkota]
Thank you, Saurav. It was a pleasure talking with you. Thank you.

[00:44:36] - [Saurav Lama]
Thanks for listening to PODS by PEI. I hope you enjoyed my conversation with Vishnu on the early results of the recently concluded twenty twenty two general elections, the implications for the major political parties, the rise of the independence, and the future of Nepali politics and policy making. Today's episode is part of the brief. It was produced by me, Saurav Lama, with support from Nirjan Rai, Kushi Hang, Aparna Paudyal, and Chhedon Kansakar. The episode was recorded at PEI studio and edited by Chhedon Kansakar.

[00:45:07] - [Saurav Lama]
Our theme music is courtesy of Rohit Shakya from Zindabad. If you liked today's episode, please subscribe to our podcast. Also, please do us a favor by sharing us on social media and leaving a review on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, or wherever you listen to the show. For PEI's video related content, please search for Policy Entrepreneurs on YouTube. To catch the latest from us on Nepal's policy and politics, please follow us on Twitter tweet2pei that's tweet followed by the number two and PEI and on Facebook at Policy Entrepreneurs Inc. You can also visit pei.center to learn more about us. Thanks once again from me, Saurav Lama. We'll see you soon in our next episode.